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American League Thursday night Betting preview
2010-09-23
Aces duel in the Bronx tonight as the Tampa Bay Rays send David Price to the mound to do battle with CC Sabathia. Despite Price’s 17-6 record and 2.78 ERA, Sportsbook.com currently has the Rays as +130 underdogs.
The Rays enter the night 1.5 games behind New York in the East.
Just 10 days removed from an epic pitching duel in Tampa, David Price (17-6, 2.79 ERA) once again squares off against CC Sabathia (20-6, 3.05 ERA). Both starters were brilliant that night, with Price allowing only three hits in eight innings, while Sabathia gave up only two. Price has been masterful for the Rays all year. The team has won his last four starts and seven of his last eight. His most recent effort was a no-decision against the Angels where he gave up three runs on four hits over seven innings in a 4-3 Tampa win.
Sabathia is also coming off a three-run, seven inning outing that saw him get back in the win column after the Yankees dropped his last two starts. Prior to that, they had won his last six. Sabathia has good career numbers against the Rays, going 8-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 19 career starts. Price also has solid numbers against New York, carrying a 2-1 mark with a 3.20 ERA into Thursday’s game.
After checking out the betting guide at Sportsbook.com, this interesting trend sides with the Yankees.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TAMPA BAY) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start. (55-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +28.7 units. Rating = 2*).
Another top notch American League pitching duel takes place out west as Cliff Lee and the Texas Rangers take on Dallas Braden and the Oakland A’s. After scanning Sportsbook.com betting board, the Rangers are currently -125 money line favorites. As expected, the oddsmakers set a low ‘total’ of 6.5 runs.
After dropping four of their last six games, the Rangers turn to Cliff Lee (12-8, 3.19 ERA) to right the ship Thursday night in Oakland. Lee is coming off a pair of wins that saw him go eight innings and give up one run to both the Yankees and Mariners. Prior to those outings Lee had been shaky, going 0-3 over his previous five starts. The Rangers were 0-5 in those games. He has had success against Oakland in his career, going 5-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 11 starts.
Lee will be opposed by Dallas Braden (9-13, 3.65 ERA). It’s been a struggle for Braden lately, who is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA in his last three starts. Most recently he gave up four runs on eight hits over six innings in taking the loss at Minnesota. Things have gone downhill since Braden threw his perfect game on May 9. He’s just 5-11 in 20 starts since that day and the A’s are 6-14 in those games. A silver lining in that record is a complete game, four-hit shutout of Texas on August 28.
Despite Braden’s recent struggles, the following betting trend sides with those betting on Oakland:
Play On - Home teams (OAKLAND) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (129-65 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.5%, +69.7 units. Rating = 4*).
To check out more statistics and trends, head over to Sportsbook.com and check out the sports betting guide for all of the MLB games as well as NFL Week 3 betting.
CFB: GMAC Bowl - TROY vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-06
The GMAC Bowl series has produced the most lopsided games of any bowl series in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game. Central Michigan hopes that trend continues, although the MAC representative has been on the short end of the L3 blowouts. The Chippewas are 2-point favorites at Sportsbook.com after spending most of the last three weeks as favorites of 4-points or more.
The Chippewas got here by virtue of an 11-2 record and third conference title in the L4 years. The 2009 group was the best of the bunch, however, evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. Senior and four-year starting quarterback Dan LeFevour plays his last game for Central Michigan. Troy is again the Sun Belt champ and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games, going 1-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 going OVER the total.
Coach Butch Jones took the Central Michigan football program to new heights. He won't be around to fully enjoy the fruits of his labor.
With the first national ranking in their history but without the coach who led them there, the No. 25 Chippewas will face Sun Belt Conference champion Troy on Wednesday night at the GMAC Bowl in Mobile, Ala.
Central Michigan (11-2) is champion of the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four seasons, with the last two titles coming under Jones. The coach posted a 27-13 record in his three seasons, marked by a spread offense that averaged 32.6 points during his tenure and exceeded 45 points five times in 2009. A 20-10 victory over Ohio in the MAC championship game vaulted the Chippewas into the Top 25 for the first time.
After that success, No. 4 Cincinnati came calling. Faced with a coaching vacancy after Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame, the Bearcats tabbed Jones for the job. Associate coach Steve Stripling will lead the Chippewas on an interim basis.
The Chippewas may no longer have the coach who installed their high-powered offense, but they still have the record-setting quarterback who makes it run. Four-year starter Dan LeFevour has thrown for 27 touchdowns and run for 14 to bring his career total to 147 TDs passing, rushing and receiving. That sets the major college football mark, previously shared by Hawaii's Colt Brennan and Texas Tech's Graham Harrell.
Having a record-setting receiver to target also helps. Senior Bryan Anderson has caught at least one pass in an NCAA record 53 consecutive games, and has 57 receptions for 700 yards and six touchdowns this season. Junior Antonio Brown, meanwhile, has team highs of 97 catches, 1,020 yards and nine scores.
Troy's offense may be able to keep pace. The Trojans (9-3) averaged 33.1 points - 41.2 over their last six games - en route to winning at least a share of the Sun Belt title for the fourth consecutive year.
They also boast a record-setting quarterback of their own. Senior Levi Brown ranks second in the nation with 322.3 passing yards per game, and his 3,868 yards were the most in the history of both Troy and the Sun Belt.
When Brown isn't throwing the ball, he's often handing it off to Shawn Southward. The running back ranked fifth in the nation among freshmen with 10 rushing touchdowns and gained 574 yards on 100 carries. He's taken some of the workload away from junior DuJuan Harris, whose production fell from 1,077 rushing yards in 2008 to 471.
Troy lost in overtime to Southern Miss in the New Orleans Bowl following last season. The Trojans earned their lone bowl victory in three tries in 2006, beating Rice at the New Orleans Bowl.
The Chippewas are 1-4 in bowl games, defeating Middle Tennessee in the 2006 Motor City Bowl. This is the first time they've ventured out of state in postseason play since 1994, when they fell to UNLV in the Las Vegas Bowl.
This is the first meeting between these schools.
GMAC BOWL Series Trend: Since the well-known Marshall 64-61 come from behind win over East Carolina in 2001, the GMAC Bowl results have been downright ugly. Favorites have won and covered the last seven games of the series, with an average winning margin of 30.3 PPG. The last three installments have seen Conference USA on the winning end over the MAC. The last four games have gone UNDER the total, simply since the losing team has only produced 10.0 PPG.
CFB: Gator Bowl - FLORIDA STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (1:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-04
Expect plenty of hype surrounding Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. The Mountaineers are 3-point favorites with a total of 60 at Sportsbook.com, and in typical fashion, bettors are siding with the favorites and the OVER.
Whether or not FSU is deserving of playing on New Year’s Day, with their 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, is certainly debatable. In unfamiliar fashion, Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. It has been a sound bowl team, however, going 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its L5, having gone OVER the total each time. West Virginia is 9-3, yet plays as just a field-goal favorite. The Mountaineers have won four straight bowl games.
I’ve already heard it 100 times since Bowden decided to retire…Florida State would love to send him out on a winning note. Blah, blah, blah. Wanting and being able to are two entirely different things and when you simply look at this game from a strength perspective, West Virginia is 9-3 with a StatFox Outplay Factor Rating of +7.9, while Florida State is 6-6 with an Outplay Factor +4.1. The Seminoles are even down their starting quarterback from the season. In truth, this is a .500 Florida State team that has perhaps the worst defensive unit of ANY of the 68 bowl teams. It is only playing on New Year’s Day because it begged for a game in the state of Florida. The Bowden motivation will only take the Seminoles so far. West Virginia rolls, 34-20.
Top FoxSheets.com ATS Trend
W VIRGINIA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992. The average score was W VIRGINIA 23.2, OPPONENT 27.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Top FoxSheets.com Total Trend
W VIRGINIA is 20-6 OVER (+13.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. The average score was W VIRGINIA 32.8, OPPONENT 24.8 - (Rating = 2*)
GATOR BOWL Series Trend: Nebraska’s 26-21 win over Clemson in the ’09 Gator Bowl snapped a string of seven straight ATS wins by the ACC representative in the series. It also marked the first Gator Bowl game to go UNDER the total since ’04. The Big East Conference has not appeared in this game since ’07 and has lost five straight ATS. Florida State, in Bobby Bowden’s last game, will look to extend that streak by repeating their ’05 win over the Mountaineers.
CFB: MAC Title Game has Big Favorite
2009-12-04
All season long, Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS) has gone about its business in a diligent manner. Picked to win the Mid-American Conference for the third time in four years, often other teams would have fallen under the weight of expectations, not this bunch. CMU will try to wrap the league title vs. Ohio U on Friday night in Detroit. The Chippewas are a heavy 13-point favorite at Sportsbook.com but that hasn’t stopped 80% of bettors from putting their faith in them.
The Chippewas are 8-0 and 6-2 ATS in conference action and upset Michigan State and gave Arizona a competitive game, covering the spread at Tucson in the season opener. All along this journey, Dan LeFevour has proven to a special college quarterback and is now MAC’s all-time leader in passing yards, breaking quarterback Byron Leftwich’s record and is now third all-time on the NCAA yardage list. Central Michigan’s return to prominence after 8-5 season coincided with defense coming together. The Chippewas are 18-10-1 against the spread as conference favorites the last five seasons.
Ohio U. tumbled Temple from the ranks of the unbeaten in the MAC last week and captured the East Division title 35-17, ending the Owls nine-game winning streak. Quarterback Theo Scott threw three touchdowns and ran for two more, setting up 2006 rematch for conference championship. The Bobcats (9-3, 7-4 ATS) offense has clicked the last few weeks, averaging 33.3 points per game, after scoring 19.5 PPG against lesser MAC competition in four prior games. Ohio U. arrives in Detroit with four-game winning streak and is 18-8 ATS off one or more wins the last five years.
Central Michigan finished first in the conference in points allowed at 17.8 and second in total defense at 331 yards per game surrendered. Defensive end Frank Zombo said “It hurt last year to be ranked near the bottom in team defense, - he added, “That’s why we missed the championship game, and we had to watch it on TV. That’s what motivated us in the offseason. We didn’t want to be on our couches watching the game again.”
The Chippewas may have a decided edge over Ohio U. if they get into the red zone. Central Michigan held opponents to a 73 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line, while the Bobcats ranks 106th in red zone scoring, and beggarly 114th in red zone touchdown percentage.
Sportsbook.com has Ohio U. as a 13-point underdog at Ford Field, with total of 53. The Bobcats realize the hill they have to climb, but have a much improved secondary since the last time these teams met and have forced FBS-best 35 turnovers this season.
“You want to be the best, you have to beat the best,” senior WR Taylor Price said. “We get that chance.”
Creating turnovers will be huge for the Ohio since they are 8-1 ATS if they have the opponent commit at least two miscues. Oddmakers are setting a scoring pace CMU signal caller Dan LeFevour is very comfortable at, with 9-2 ATS record when the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Central Michigan has defeated Ohio three consecutive times (2-0-1 ATS), including 31-28 at Athens, OH last year and in MAC Championship 31-10 three years ago.
ESPN2 has the MAC title game at 8:00 Eastern. Sportsbook.com has the wagering action covered, although, there might be a slight overpricing, as the StatFox Power Line shows Central Michigan by 10 only.
CFB: Arizona State at Oregon (10:15 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-11-13
Oregon’s slip last week at Stanford left it no room for error in the quest to be the 2009 Pac-10 champion. The Ducks will return home this week when they host an Arizona State team that gave USC all it could last week. It seems that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com cannot set a line high enough for players on this contest, as an opening price of -16 has moved to -18 under the pressure of 93% support from bettors.
The Ducks (7-2, 6-3 ATS) look to continue their march towards a Pac-10 title and have games at Arizona and vs. Oregon State left on the slate. Oregon’s seven game winning streak ended last week at Stanford with a foul defensive performance. The offense is hardly a duck out of water, averaging over 40 points a game in conference action, including the 24 against UCLA when quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was out with knee injury. Opposing teams have much to fear, as one Pac-10 coach said about the Ducks offense after watching the USC massacre. “The execution was at the highest level I’ve ever seen someone run the spread option attack,”
Another aspect is the athleticism of the Oregon defense, which is evident watching them play (when motivated) and fly around to the ball. It’s no wonder they are 28-11 ATS when they allow 15 to 21 points. Incidentally, the StatFox Game Estimator pegs the Sun Devils for 19 in this one.
Folks in Tempe are showing signs of restlessness after three straight Pac-10 losses and a 2-5 record since starting 2-0. Injuries have been a big factor for a squad lacking any real depth. Rumors are circulating that Dennis Erickson has a coaching staff littered with too many cronies and not enough younger energetic types that can recruit and keep the players fired up. Erickson is also calling the offense and questionable clock management has surfaced in different games, with many believing the head coach’s plate is too full. The defense is well above average (15th in total defense); however they will have to be uncommonly extraordinary to slow Oregon. The Sun Devils are a pale 8-18-2 ATS as a conference club catching points.
Oregon has oppressed Arizona State (4-3 ATS) in the last four meetings, winning and covering each time, with average differential of 24 points a contest. These two schools have averaged 64 points per game the last three years.
The StatFox Power Line shows Oregon by 20, meaning Sportsbook may have to boost the number up above that figure to even out is betting action before kickoff. Be patient if you plan on taking the underdog for this late night contest.
CFB: East Carolina at Memphis Betting Preview
2009-10-27
It hasn’t been quite the season East Carolina envisioned; however a victory at Memphis keeps the Pirates on track to defend their title as Conference USA champions. The Pirates (4-3, 2-4 ATS) are tied for first place in the East Division with Marshall and Southern Miss at 3-1 and take control, at least for the time being, with a win. ECU is a 4-point favorite at last check and backed by well over 90% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
East Carolina hopes their 49 points against Rice has them going in the right direction offensively, since they rank fifth in points scored (25.1) and are eighth in total offense (329.9) in the league. Quarterback Patrick Pinkney has been uneven performer all season in terms of passing. Despite a veteran offensive line, East Carolina has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry against opponents allowing 4.1. The Pirates are only 1-3 SU as visitors this season and 2-9 ATS in road games over the last two seasons.
Memphis (2-5, SU&ATS) has moved the ball better than the number of points they’ve scored on the season and will need to improve that situation promptly with daunting slate the rest of the year. The Tigers rank sixth in total offense in C-USA play, however are merely ninth in scoring at 21.4 points per game.
Quarterback injuries and ineffectiveness have again limited what coach Tommy West would like to do at Memphis. A great example of moving the ball without scoring was last contest against Southern Miss. In spite of 425-360 edge in total yards, Memphis lost 36-16 as 14.5-point underdogs. The Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in non-Saturday games.
Sportsbook.com has East Carolina as four-point road favorites, despite 0-6 ATS mark in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. The Pirates will look to force miscues and are in the Top 20 in turnovers forced with 17. They will need to be consistent on offense and keep tallying scores since Memphis red zone defense is laughable, with opposing teams have scored 25 of 27 trips.
For the Tigers, it’s about scoring touchdowns and ringing up 30 or more points. If Memphis can reach 30-point plateau, they are 8-3 ATS. That means passing and running the ball effectively. They are 0-6 ATS when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last two seasons. Memphis has struggled mightily with East Carolina, with 4-8 SU record and 1-11 ATS, failing to cover last seven in a row.
Coach Skip Holtz has his father Lou in town, along with Rece Davis and Mark May to do the game on ESPN2 at 8 Eastern. With Memphis still having road games at Tennessee, at Houston and at Tulsa, this might be a conference game to give sharp effort and they are 8-1 ATS after Southern Miss and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs under coach West.
The StatFox Power Line says ECU by 6, so perhaps Sportsbook needs to bump the line up a bit by kickoff.